2005 Iraqi Parliamentary Elections Primer

Shiite and Kurdish Blocs to Dominate Once Again

United Iraqi Alliance (UIA)
Conservative Shiite
Key Parties: Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), Dawa Party
Key Leaders: Ibrahim al-Jaafari & Abdul Aziz al-Hakim

Iraqi National List (INL)
Secular Shiite
Key Parties: Iraqi National Accord (INA), Assembly of Independent Democrats (AID), The Iraqis
Key Leaders: Ayad Allawi, Adnan Pachachi, Ghazi al-Yawer

Iraqi National Congress (INC)
Secular Shiite
Key Leaders: Ahmed Chalabi

Kurdistan Coalition
Kurdish
Key Parties: Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP)
Key Leaders: Jalal Talabani, Masoud Barzani

Iraqi Accord Front (IAF)
Sunni
Key Parties: Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP)
Key Leaders: Adnan al-Dulaymi, Tariq al-Hashimi

The United Iraqi Alliance (UIA), which is composed of 18 Shiite parties, will once again garner the majority of seats in Iraq's parliament although their domination will not equal that of their January showing in which they received over 48% of the votes and 140 seats in parliament. The bloc includes Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari's Iranian-backed Dawa Party and influential sheik Abdul Aziz al-Hakim's Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI). A new addition to the bloc is that of the Sadr movement, led by firebrand cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. Sadr, who has orchestrated two uprisings against occupation forces, has a substantial following among Iraq's impoverished Shiite youth. Despite failing to receiving an official endorsement from Iraq's most powerful religious figure, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the UIA is still expected to run away with the elections and once again obtain the most seats on Iraq's parliament, or Council of Representatives.

The Kurdistan Coalition – like that of the United Iraqi Alliance – will do very well in the parliamentary elections. The coalition is made up of eight predominately Kurdish parties including President Jalal Talabani's Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP), which is led by Kurdistan's President Masoud Barzani. Although they will not receive the nearly 26% of total votes as they did last time – due to increased Sunni participation – the bloc will sweep Iraq's Kurdish north and, in all likelihood, finish with the second most seats on Iraq’s new parliament. The Kurdish Coalition former prior to last January's elections in an effort to compete with the aligning Shiites.

Although January's two dominant blocs will once again have strong showings, the elections' biggest winners may, in fact, be the more secular Shiite political organizations like the Iraqi National Congress (INC) and the Iraqi National List (INL). The parties have grown in popularity since the January elections and are looking to gain votes from moderate Shiite's who have become dissatisfied with the current UIA-dominated government as well as moderate Sunnis. Dissatisfaction with the current government is reportedly what led to al-Sistani's decision to refrain from endorsing any single party. The Iraqi National List is headed by former Iraqi Prime Minister Ayad Allawi while one-time Pentagon favorite Ahmed Chalabi leads the Iraqi National Congress. Secular in nature – growing uncommon in an increasingly sectarian society – the INL also includes some moderate Sunni groups like former Iraqi Vice President Ghazi al-Yawar's The Iraqis party and the Assembly of Independent Democrats (AID), which is led by longtime politician Adnan Pachachi. Of the two secular Shiite groups the INL is anticipated to have a better showing after having received almost 14% of the January vote.

The wild card in the entire voting process, as it so often has been in Iraq, is the minority Sunni's. Largely boycotting the landmark January election, Sunni's are anticipated to vote in high numbers December 15. Seeing that the boycott left Sunni's largely unrepresented in Iraqi politics, Sunni clerics are now calling on their brethren to turn out to the polls. Some clerics belonging to the influential Association of Muslim Scholars (AMS) – who boycotted January’s electoral process – have recently conveyed that it was every Sunni's religious duty to participate in the parliamentary elections. Although the Sunnis are more politically fragmented than their Shiite or Kurdish counterparts, the Iraqi Accord Front (IAF) is expected to make a formidable showing on December 15. Consisting of three Sunni parties the IAF is the largest Sunni bloc participating in the parliamentary elections. The largest and most widely known party in the bloc is the prominent Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP) that is led by Tariq al-Hashimi. A smaller Sunni group participating in the voting process is secular Sunni political figure Saleh al-Mutlaq's Iraqi Front for National Dialogue (IFND).